How’s the Market
This is an analysis of the Santa Barbara Real Estate market through the month of January 2013. Starting with the Home Estate/PUD sector for the month of January 2013 we had about 80 sales compared to 71 in January 2012 and the median sales price went from $810,000 last year rising to $822,000 this year.The numbers of escrows for the month came in at about 100 which is approximately where we started 2012 but the median list price on those escrows rose from $819,000 in 2012 to about $950,000 in 2013. The days on the market for sold properties dropped dramatically however from 2012 when it was 79 to roughly 50 in 2013 and the Sales Price to Original List Price Ratio rose from 89% last year to about 94% this year.
So… Buy Now or Wait? If you didn’t buy in 2011 (or 2012) and are still without ownership housing or still looking for that trade-up home, the waiting period is over.
Here are the reasons you need to buy this year:
(1) Prices hit bottom and are rising again
Home values have risen sharply throughout California since the summer of 2012. Year over year price appreciation is 10 percent or more in most areas. Blame it on the declining supply of foreclosures in the system and a general lack of conventional home inventory.
(2) Homes are affordable again
They’ve not been this affordable since the late 1990s. The average principal and interest mortgage payment has declined 40 to 50 percent. If you’re renting, average rents are rising again. Expect them to move 3 to 4 percent higher this year. And vacancy rates are very tight.
(3) Mortgage rates are at their lowest levels
And the risk of them rising further is now high. With the economic cycle moving from recovery to expansionary, there will be growing pressure for interest rates to rise.
Though the Federal Reserve has pledged to keep short term rates at current levels into 2014, longer term rates (including mortgage rates) are vulnerable to an increase. Already since early December 2012, the 10 year U.S. treasury bond yield has risen nearly 50 basis points.
Home Estate & PUD Market at a Glance
Total Sales 79
The average price is $1,256,470.
The highest price is $8,250,000. 810 Lilac Drive Montecito
The median price is $822,000.
The lowest price is $305,000.5393 Tracy Drive
The average Market Time is 50.
Home Estate & PUD Market Overview
Of the roughly 80 homes that sold in January over approximately 50 were below $1 million with 25 of those 50 falling between $550,000 and $700,000. About 20 of the sales came in between $1 and $2 million with 10 above $2 million and of those 10 above $2 million there were 2 over $5 million.
For Montecito, sales are down going from 14 to 12 with the median sales price rising from $1.82 million to $2.75 million. Escrows are up going from 17 to 25 and the median list price on those escrows is up from $2.445 million to $2.474 million.
East of State St sales are down going from 25 in ’12 to 15 in ‘13 but the median sales price is up from $891,250 to $911,000. The escrows are down going from 29 to 22 with the median list price on those escrows rising from $849,000 last year to $995,000 this year.
West of State St sales are up from 8 to 15 and the median sales price is up from $508,000 to $682,450. The numbers of escrows are up with 15 in ’12 compared to 18 in ‘13 but the median list price on those escrows is up from $750,000 last year to $769,450 this year.
Hope Ranch sales are up from 2 to 5 and the median sales price is up from $1.532 million to $1.983 million. The numbers of escrows are down with 3 in ’12 to 0 in ’13 and the median list price on those escrows is down from $2.29 million in ’12 to $0 in ‘13.
Goleta South sales are 5 in ’12 and in ’13 there were 12 and the median sales price is up from $497,500 to $635,000. The numbers of escrows are down however from 14 to 8 with the median list price on those escrows rising from $549,000 to $679,000.
Goleta North sales are up with 13 in ’12 and 17 in ’13 with the median sales price rising from $625,000 to $697,500. The numbers of escrows are even however from 16 to 16 with the median list price on those escrows rising from $615,000 to $795,000.
Condo market at a Glance
Total Sales 26
The average is $430,228.
The highest price is $995,000. 54 Olive Mill, Montecito
The median price is $406,500.
The lowest price is $158,300. 440 Camino Del Remidio #3
The average Market Time is 72.
Condo market Overview
For the Condo segment of the market there were about 26 sales in January 2013 up from 13 in January 2012. The median sales price also rose from $353,000 to roughly $410,000 but the average sales price declined from $464,069 to approximately $430,000. The numbers of escrows went up slightly from ’12 when there were 28 to about 30 in ’13 with the median list price on those escrows rising from $404,500 to approximately $425,000.
The overall inventory of available condos remained low at around 50 with a median list price on that inventory of $835,000 and an average list price of over $1 million. The troubling aspect of the inventory is that for both Home Estates and Condos January was the highpoint for the year so if we continue to drop from these 50 condos for sale and approximately 300 homes sales will drop while prices will rise.